EXCEL FORECAST.ETS.STAT FUNCTION

The Forecast.Ets.Stat function in Excel creates a statistical value based on a time series forecast.

Syntax :

=FORECAST.ETS.STAT( valuestimelinestatistic_type[seasonality][data completion][aggregation] )

Parameters :

  • The function parameters are as follows:

values –

  • An array of historical known values that correlate to a set of dates/times.

Timeline –

  • An independent array of dates/times corresponding to each value.
    This must meet the following requirements:
    The timeline array and the values array must have the same size.
    Although the dates/times in the timeline must have a constant step length between them:
    Depending on the value of the [data completeness] option, up to 30% of points may be missing and dealt with.
    The timeline may contain duplicates, whose associated values will be aggregated according to the [aggregation] option.
    The timeline’s dates and times can be in any sequence.

statistic type –

  • A numeric number that specifies which statistical value should be returned.
    This must be a number between 1 and 8, i.e.

[seasonality] –

  • An optional input specifying the algorithm to be used to detect seasonality in data.
    If provided, this must be a positive integer between 0 and 8784, corresponding to:
[seasonality]Algorithm
0No seasonality (i.e. use the linear algorithm for the forecast).
1 (or omitted)Automatically calculate the seasonality and use positive, whole numbers for the length of the seasonal pattern.
integer ≥ 2
& ≤ 8784
Use patterns of this length as the seasonality.

[data completion] –

  • An optional input that specifies how the algorithm should handle missing timeline points.
    If given, the [data completion] parameter can have a value of 0 or 1 indicating completion.
[data completion]Algorithm
0Treat missing points as having the value zero.
1 (or omitted)Calculate the value for missing points to be the average of the neighbouring values.

 

[aggregation] –

  • An optional parameter that tells the algorithm how to aggregate data with the same timestamp.
    This can be any integer between 1 and 7 if provided.
[aggregation]Aggregation Method
1 (or omitted)Average
2Count
3Counta
4Max
5Median
6Min
7Sum

Step By Step Guide of FORECAST.ETS.STAT Function

Example :

The spreadsheet on the right displays a series of monthly earnings from January 2015 to April 2017. The following values are presented in the chart:
The expected earnings for May 2017 were originally computed by the Forecast.Ets function to be 1461.632054.
The Forecast.Ets.Stat function in Excel may be used to return statistical information about this forecast. For example, in order to return the ETS algorithm’s Alpha parameter:

=FORECAST.ETS.STAT( B2:B29, A2:A29, 1 )

which yields 0.126.
If you wish to return the step size identified by the ETS algorithm, use the following code:

=FORECAST.ETS.STAT( B2:B29, A2:A29, 8 )

which produces the value 31.

  • #N/A – Occurs if the lengths of the given values and timeline arrays disagree.
  • #NUM! – Occurs if either: A reliable step size cannot be outlined in the dates/times of the supplied timeframe supplied statistic type value is not within the valid range 1 – 8; \sThe supplied [seasonality] valuation is not within valid range 0 – 8784; \sThe supplied [data completion] is not equal to 0 or 1; \sThe supplied [agglomeration] value is not in the valid range 1 – 7.
  • #VALUE! – Occurs when one or more of the specified statistic type, [seasonality], [data completeness], or [aggregation] parameters is not a number.

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