EXCEL FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY FUNCTION

The Forecast.Ets.Seasonality function in Excel determines the duration of a recurring pattern in a timeline.

Syntax :

=FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY( valuestimeline[data completion][aggregation] )

Parameters :

  • The function parameters are as follows:

values –

  • An array of previously known values.

Timeline –

  • An independent array of dates/times corresponding to each value.
    This must meet the following requirements:
    The timeline array must be the same length as the values array; however, the dates/times in the timeline must have a constant step length between them.
    Depending on the value of the [data completeness] option, up to 30% of points may be missing and dealt with.
    The timeline may contain duplicates, whose associated values will be aggregated according to the [aggregation] option.

          The timeline’s dates and times can be in any sequence.

[data completion] –

  • An optional input that specifies how the algorithm should handle missing timeline points.
    If provided, the [data completion] parameter can have a value of 0 or 1, which means:
[data completion]Algorithm
0Treat missing points as having the value zero.
1 (or omitted)Calculate the value for missing points to be the average of the neighbouring values.

[aggregation] –

  • An optional parameter that tells the algorithm how to aggregate data with the same timestamp.
    If provided, this can be any integer between 1 and 7, which means:
[aggregation]Aggregation Method
1 (or omitted)Average
2Count
3Counta
4Max
5Median
6Min
7Sum

 

Step By Step Guide of FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY Function

Example :

The spreadsheet on the right displays a series of monthly earnings from January 2015 to April 2017. The following values are presented in the chart:
Forecast in Excel. Ets.
The seasonality function may be used to anticipate the length of the cool climate in profits between January 2015 and April 2017. This yields the number 11.
For the data presented, the method returned a seasonality value of 11. (although we might have expected the seasonal pattern to be 12 for this data). As additional data values are sent into the algorithm, the computed seasonality value should improve in accuracy.
The function’s [data completion] and [aggregation] parameters have been missing, thus the default value is used.

  • #N/A – Occurs if the lengths of the given values and timeline arrays disagree.
  • #NUM! – Occurs if any of the following conditions are met: a consistent step size cannot be recognised in the dates/times of the given timeline; the supplied [data completion] is not equal to 0 or 1; the supplied [aggregate] value is not within the valid range 1 – 7.
  • #VALUE! – Occurs if one of the given [data completion] or [aggregation] parameters is not a number.

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