EXCEL FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT FUNCTION

The Excel Forecast.Ets.Confint function computes the confidence interval for a forecast number on a timeline.

Syntax :

=FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT( target_datevaluestimeline[confidence_level][seasonality][data completion][aggregation] )

Parameters :

  • The function parameters are:
  • target date –
  • A date/time for which you wish to predict a value.
    (Must be after the final date/time in the historical timeline.)

Timeline –

  • An independent array of dates/times corresponding to each value.
    This must meet the following requirements:
    The timeline array and the values array must have the same size.
    Although the dates/times in the timeline must have a constant step length between them:
    Depending on the value of the [data completeness] option, up to 30% of points may be missing and dealt with.
    The timeline may contain duplicates, whose associated values will be aggregated according to the [aggregation] option.
    The timeline’s dates and times can be in any sequence.

values –

  • An array of previously known values for which you wish to anticipate the next point.

[confidence level] –

  • An optional numeric number expressing the confidence level for the estimated confidence interval.
    If provided, this must be an integer between 0 and 1. (exclusive).
    If omitted, the [confidence level] is set to the default value of 0.95. (i.e. a 95 percent confidence level).

[seasonality] –

  • An optional input specifying the algorithm to be used to detect seasonality in data.
    If provided, this must be a positive integer between 0 and 8784, corresponding to:
[seasonality]Algorithm
0No seasonality (i.e. use the linear algorithm for the forecast).
1 (or omitted)Automatically calculate the seasonality and use positive, whole numbers for the length of the seasonal pattern.
integer ≥ 2
& ≤ 8784
Use patterns of this length as the seasonality.


[data completion] –

  • An optional input that specifies how the algorithm should handle missing timeline points. If provided, the [data completion] parameter can have a value of 0 or 1, which means:
[data completion]Algorithm
0Treat missing points as having the value zero.
1 (or omitted)Calculate the value for missing points to be the average of the neighbouring values.

[aggregation] –

  • An optional parameter that tells the algorithm how to aggregate data with the same timestamp. If provided, this can be any integer between 1 and 7, which means:
[aggregation]Aggregation Method
1 (or omitted)Average
2Count
3Counta
4Max
5Median
6Min
7Sum

Step By Step Guide of FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT Function

Example :

The spreadsheet on the right displays a series of monthly earnings from January 2015 to April 2017. These values are depicted in the graph below.

The Prediction. The Ets function previously computed the May 2017 earnings prediction to be 1461.632054.
This yields the value 202.1409609.

The Excel Predicted.Ets.Confint function may be used to produce a confidence interval (with a 95% confidence level) for this forecast earnings amount, as shown below:

=FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT( A30, B2:B29, A2:A29, 95% )

As a result, the profits value for May 2017 is predicted to be within 202.1409609 of the estimated number 1461.632054 95 percent of the time.

In other words, the profits figure for May 2017 is anticipated to fall between the following range 95% of the time:

202.1409609 1461.632054

  • #N/A – Occurs if the lengths of the given values and timeline arrays disagree.
  • #NUM! – Occurs if any of the following conditions are met: a consistent step size cannot be defined in the dates/times of the supplied timeline; the supplied [confindence level] value and not within the legitimate range 0 – 1 (unique); the supplied [seasonality] valuation is not within the valid range 0 – 8784; the supplied [data completion] valuation is not equal to 0 or 1; the provided [agglomeration] value is not within the valid range
  • #VALUE! – Occurs when one or more of the specified [confindence level], [seasonality], [data completeness], or [aggregation] parameters is not a number.

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