The Excel Forecast.Ets.Confint function computes the confidence interval for a forecast number on a timeline.
Syntax :
=FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT( target_date, values, timeline, [confidence_level], [seasonality], [data completion], [aggregation] )
Parameters :
Timeline –
values –
[confidence level] –
[seasonality] –
[seasonality] | Algorithm |
---|---|
0 | No seasonality (i.e. use the linear algorithm for the forecast). |
1 (or omitted) | Automatically calculate the seasonality and use positive, whole numbers for the length of the seasonal pattern. |
integer ≥ 2 & ≤ 8784 | Use patterns of this length as the seasonality. |
[data completion] –
[data completion] | Algorithm |
---|---|
0 | Treat missing points as having the value zero. |
1 (or omitted) | Calculate the value for missing points to be the average of the neighbouring values. |
[aggregation] –
[aggregation] | Aggregation Method |
---|---|
1 (or omitted) | Average |
2 | Count |
3 | Counta |
4 | Max |
5 | Median |
6 | Min |
7 | Sum |
Example :
The spreadsheet on the right displays a series of monthly earnings from January 2015 to April 2017. These values are depicted in the graph below.
The Prediction. The Ets function previously computed the May 2017 earnings prediction to be 1461.632054.
This yields the value 202.1409609.
The Excel Predicted.Ets.Confint function may be used to produce a confidence interval (with a 95% confidence level) for this forecast earnings amount, as shown below:
=FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT( A30, B2:B29, A2:A29, 95% )
As a result, the profits value for May 2017 is predicted to be within 202.1409609 of the estimated number 1461.632054 95 percent of the time.
In other words, the profits figure for May 2017 is anticipated to fall between the following range 95% of the time:
202.1409609 1461.632054
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